The Stamp Duty effect – bubble or bounce?

The dramatic announcement in the Chancellor’s mini-Budget that Stamp Duty would be axed on properties under £500,000 sparked a frenzy of interest among buyers.

Rightmove reported that within half an hour of Rishi Sunak’s announcement, traffic to its website jumped by 22 per cent. Over the course of the day, visits hit 8.5 million, up from the previous day’s record of 7.7 million after rumours of a tax cut leaked.

With nine out of 10 house buyers in England and Northern Ireland set to escape Stamp Duty altogether, most agents rushed to welcome the move, glad to have their phones ringing off the hook after months of inactivity during the COVID-19 lockdown.

Other parts of the UK have followed Rishi Sunak’s lead, albeit not so generously. The Scottish Cabinet Secretary for Finance, Kate Forbes, announced she would be changing Land and Building Transaction Tax (LBTT) by raising the initial threshold from £145,000 to £250,000, though no date has been set.

Meanwhile homebuyers in Wales will not have to pay tax on properties worth up to £250,000 from 27 July, an increase of £70,000 on the previous threshold of £180,000.

VALUATION REQUESTS UP 89%

It’s certainly easy to get caught up in the hype. The number of people contacting agents about property on Budget day was up 93 per cent on the same day in 2019, while valuation requests from potential sellers hit a record high, up 89 per cent on the year before.

And it’s not just buyers at lower price points who will benefit. The Stamp Duty cut also applies to the first £500,000 for purchases above this threshold, meaning high-end buyers will also enjoy a considerable saving of as much as £15,000.

But where does the temporary Stamp Duty holiday – it expires on 31 March – leave the housing market?

Once all the short-term froth has died away and city escapees have found their rural retreat, is there a risk of a slump next year as the harsh realities of the dire economic situation hit home?

Where does it leave first-time buyers with small deposits, shut out of the market by risk-averse lenders unwilling to go above 85 per cent loan to value (LTV)? Buyers without whom there can be no long-term recovery.

16/09/20

The Stamp Duty effect – bubble or bounce?

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